FXテクニカル分析＆業者比較Blog

日本時間2011/11/3　01：30発表

Release Date: November 2, 2011

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.（反対票１名）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--November 2, 2011

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting--November 2, 2011　　　　

日本時間　同日03:15ごろ

FRB議長　バーナンキ会見

「経済拡大のペース、いら立つほど遅くなる公算。」
「成長の緩やかなペース、現在の住宅市場の低迷・信用収縮などの要素を反映。」
「欧州情勢を緊密に注視し続ける。」
「インフレ、一時的要因の後退により緩和されたもよう。」
「米経済の現状に満足していない。」
「格差解消の最善策は新規雇用創出。」
「超低金利は2013年半ば以降も続く可能性ある。」
「必要になればMBS購入の可能性はある。」
「利上げ検討にあたりどの程度まで状況が一段と明らかになる必要があるか協議した。」
「景気回復の抑制は想定以上。」
「デフレの問題は回避した。」
「物価の安定を成し遂げている。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして今回は今までと違い、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

もっと緩和的な施策（利下げ方向）をすべきということでした。

そしてその後のバーナンキ会見では、

FOMCおよびバーナンキが米経済についてかなり悲観的な見方をしている

ということが明らかになりました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　暴落

・ドル　暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？