FXテクニカル分析＆業者比較Blog

日本時間2012/1/26　　2：30ごろ発表

Release Date: January 25, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.  In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.  Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--January 25, 2012

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、なんと声明文でいきなり、

2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

サプライズの悪材料です。

（今までは2013年半ばまで、と表記されていた。）

そして前回と同じく、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

2014年云々の説明を省略すべき、という理由でした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　上昇！（利下げ方向は株の好材料）

・ドル　暴落！（利下げ方向はドルの悪材料）

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/12/14　　4：15発表 （実際には3分フライングして4：12発表）

Release Date: December 13, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board issues FOMC statement --December 13, 2011　　　

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして前回と同じく、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

もっと緩和的な施策（利下げ方向）をすべきということでした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

新しい材料は殆ど無く、材料織り込み済みで

・株　動かず！（どちらかというと下方向）

・ドル　動かず！（どちらかというと下方向）

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/11/3　01：30発表

Release Date: November 2, 2011

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.（反対票１名）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--November 2, 2011

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting--November 2, 2011　　　　

日本時間　同日03:15ごろ

FRB議長　バーナンキ会見

「経済拡大のペース、いら立つほど遅くなる公算。」
「成長の緩やかなペース、現在の住宅市場の低迷・信用収縮などの要素を反映。」
「欧州情勢を緊密に注視し続ける。」
「インフレ、一時的要因の後退により緩和されたもよう。」
「米経済の現状に満足していない。」
「格差解消の最善策は新規雇用創出。」
「超低金利は2013年半ば以降も続く可能性ある。」
「必要になればMBS購入の可能性はある。」
「利上げ検討にあたりどの程度まで状況が一段と明らかになる必要があるか協議した。」
「景気回復の抑制は想定以上。」
「デフレの問題は回避した。」
「物価の安定を成し遂げている。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして今回は今までと違い、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

もっと緩和的な施策（利下げ方向）をすべきということでした。

そしてその後のバーナンキ会見では、

FOMCおよびバーナンキが米経済についてかなり悲観的な見方をしている

ということが明らかになりました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　暴落

・ドル　暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/09/22　03：15発表

Press Release
 
Release Date: September 21, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 21, 2011

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、FOMCは追加緩和策として、長期国債を4000億ドル購入し、

同時に保有している短期国債を同量の4000億ドル売却して、

保有米国債の平均償還期限を延長することで長期金利を押し下げると発表。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして今回も、FOMCメンバーのうち例の３名が、追加的な金融緩和を支持できないとして

反対票を投じました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　乱高下ののち、もとの水準に（株では利下げは好材料）

・ドル　大暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/08/10　03：15発表

Press Release
 
Release Date: August 9, 2011

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.  Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up.  Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.  However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand.  Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity.  Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions.  More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks.  Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.  The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.  Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.  However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.  The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rateat least through mid-2013.  The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.  The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.  It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.（これが従来の表記）

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--August 9, 2011

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

が、声明文で、なんと

2013年半ばまで、金利を異例の低水準に据え置く！

ことが明記されました。

この点について、FOMCメンバーのうち３名が反対したようです。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　乱高下ののち、もとの水準に（株では利下げは好材料、利上げは悪材料なのが定石）

・ドル　大暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　7/13（水） 　03:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, June 21-22, 2011

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, June 21, 2011, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 22, 2011, at 9:00 a.m.

PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Elizabeth Duke
Charles L. Evans
Richard W. Fisher
Narayana Kocherlakota
Charles I. Plosser
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Daniel K. Tarullo
Janet L. Yellen

日本時間　5/19（木） 　03:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, April 26-27, 2011

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
April 26-27, 2011

FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections 

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, April 26, 2011, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 27, 2011, at 8:30 a.m.
PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Elizabeth Duke
Charles L. Evans
Richard W. Fisher
Narayana Kocherlakota
Charles I. Plosser
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Daniel K. Tarullo
Janet L. Yellen

日本時間　2/17（木） 　4:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, January 25-26, 2011

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 25, 2011, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, January 26, 2011, at 9:00 a.m.

日本時間　1/5（水） 　4:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, December 14, 2010

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
December 14, 2010

FOMC Minutes 

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 14, 2010, at 8:30 a.m.
PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
James Bullard
Elizabeth Duke
Thomas M. Hoenig
Sandra Pianalto
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Eric Rosengren
Daniel K. Tarullo
Kevin Warsh
Janet L. Yellen

日本時間2010/11/4　3:15発表

Press Release

Release Date: November 3, 2010

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. 

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy. （ホーニング氏反対意見）

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--November 3, 2010

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、従来通り、「長期間に渡って政策金利を異例の低水準で据え置く」の文言がしっかりと明記されました。

（continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.）

何のサプライズもありません。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

織り込み済みとなって動きようがないようにも思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　10/13 　3:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, September 21, 2010 http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20100921.htm

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
September 21, 2010

FOMC Minutes 

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 21, 2010, at 8:00 a.m.
PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
James Bullard
Elizabeth Duke
Thomas M. Hoenig
Sandra Pianalto
Eric Rosengren
Daniel K. Tarullo
Kevin Warsh

日本時間2010/09/22　3:15発表

Press Release

Release Date: September 21, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judged that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and will lead to future imbalances that undermine stable long-run growth. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that continuing to reinvest principal payments from its securities holdings was required to support the Committee’s policy objectives.（ホーニング氏反対意見）,   

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--September 21, 2010
 

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、従来通り、「長期間に渡って政策金利を異例の低水準で据え置く」の文言がしっかりと明記されました。

（continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.）

何のサプライズもありません。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

織り込み済みとなって動きようがないようにも思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　9/1 3:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, August 10, 2010
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20100810.htm

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
August 10, 2010

FOMC Minutes 

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, August 10, 2010, at 8:00 a.m.

PRESENT:

Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
James Bullard
Elizabeth Duke
Thomas M. Hoenig
Donald L. Kohn
Sandra Pianalto
Eric Rosengren
Daniel K. Tarullo
Kevin Warsh

Press Release

 
Release Date: August 10, 2010

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions（ホーニング氏反対意見）, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement --August 10, 2010
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100810a.htm
 

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、従来通り、「長期間に渡って政策金利を異例の低水準で据え置く」の文言がしっかりと明記されました。

（continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.）

何のサプライズもありません。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

織り込み済みとなって動きようがないようにも思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？