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米FOMC系まとめ

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2018年2月 4日

FOMCまとめ 2月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2018年2月1日(木)04:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 

January 31, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180131a.htm

イエレン会見(日本時間4:30ごろから)

今回は無し 

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの金利据え置きとなりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら


内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

   
グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。 


ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。


では、これを受けて現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 2月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2018年1月 4日

FOMC議事録 全文 1月 5分足

日本時間 2018/1/4(木)4:00発表

FOMC.jpg

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

December 12-13, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 12, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 13, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 1月 5分足" »

2017年12月14日

FOMCまとめ 12月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 市場予想通りの利上げにマーケットの反応は?

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年12月14日(木)04:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 
December 13, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricane-related disruptions and rebuilding have affected economic activity, employment, and inflation in recent months but have not materially altered the outlook for the national economy. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent.(1.25~1.50%へ、0.25%の利上げ!) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.(反対2名。金利据え置きを主張。)

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171213a.htm

イエレン会見(日本時間4:30ごろから)

「第2、第3四半期の成長は底堅かった。」
米税制改革はこの先数年、経済を浮揚させる。」
「米税制改革のマクロ経済への影響は不透明。」
段階的な利上げが適切。」
労働市場は向こう数年力強い。」
雇用の増加はいずれ緩やかになる。」
「必要に応じて金融政策を調整する用意。」
「税制改革は緩やかな成長引き上げを支援。」
経済見通しはかなり不透明。」
「政策は事前に決めていない。」
インフレ鈍化は一時的な要因を反映。 」
「直近の賃金指標は緩やかな上昇を示すのみ。 」
税制改革は需要を引き上げると見ている。」
税制改革は供給も一部上昇すると見ている。」
「ビットコインは極めて投機的資産。 」
「個人的には米国の債務状況を懸念している。」

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの0.25%利上げ(1.25-1.50%)となりました。

特にサプライズはありませんが、利上げはドルにとっては好材料で、株(NYダウ)には悪材料なのが定石です。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら


内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

ただ、委員2名が金利据え置きを主張して反対票を投じており、利上げに向かってまっしぐらイケイケドンドンというわけではないようです。


その後のイエレン会見は、強気で自信に満ちており、まだまだ利上げする余地を伺わせています。


グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。


ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。


では、これを受けて現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 12月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 市場予想通りの利上げにマーケットの反応は?" »

2017年11月23日

FOMC議事録 全文 11月 5分足

日本時間 2017/11/23(木)4:00発表

FOMC.jpg

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

October 31-November 1, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, October 31, 2017, at 1:30 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, November 1, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:
Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
Charles L. Evans
Patrick Harker
Robert S. Kaplan
Neel Kashkari
Jerome H. Powell
Randal K. Quarles

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 11月 5分足" »

2017年11月 2日

FOMCまとめ 11月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年11月2日(木)03:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

November 01, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions. Although the hurricanes caused a drop in payroll employment in September, the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. Gasoline prices rose in the aftermath of the hurricanes, boosting overall inflation in September; however, inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft. On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricane-related disruptions and rebuilding will continue to affect economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.(金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The balance sheet normalization program initiated in October 2017 is proceeding.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Randal K. Quarles.(反対なし)

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171101a.htm

イエレン会見

今回はナシ

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの金利据え置き (1.00-1.25%)となりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

また、先月10月から開始されたバランスシート縮小プログラムについても、進行中であることが明記されています。

これは量的緩和で吸収した株式等の資産の放出&ドル回収となり、株安&ドル高材料となるはずです。

グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 11月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2017年10月12日

FOMC議事録 全文 10月 5分足

日本時間 2017/10/12(木)3:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

September 19-20, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 19, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, September 20, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 10月 5分足" »

2017年9月21日

FOMCまとめ 9月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年9月21日(木)03:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

September 20, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.(1.00-1.25%に金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.(量的緩和=ドルジャブジャブを縮小:ドル高材料)

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.(反対無し)

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170920a.htm

3:30頃から イエレン会見

「緩和政策が労働市場を支援。」
バランスシートの縮小は緩やかかつ予測可能に。」
「第3四半期のGDPはハリケーンの影響で鈍化見込む。」
9月の雇用者数に影響が出る可能性も。」
ハリケーンの被害にあった人の回復はしばらく時間がかかる。」
インフレ鈍化は一時的要因。」
「低インフレは経済全体を反映していない。」
インフレは目標に向かって上昇見込む。」
インフレに対する我々の理解力は完全ではない。」

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの金利据え置き (1.00-1.25%)となりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

また、バランスシート縮小を10月から開始、ということも明記されました。

これは量的緩和で吸収した株式等の資産の放出&ドル回収となり、株安&ドル高材料となるはずです。

グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 9月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2017年8月17日

FOMC議事録 全文 8月 5分足

日本時間 2017/8/17(木)3:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

July 25-26, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, July 25, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 26, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 8月 5分足" »

2017年7月27日

FOMCまとめ 7月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年7月27日(木)03:00 発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 
July 26, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.(金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.(全会一致

   

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170726a.htm


   

 

イエレン会見 今回は無し

 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおりの金利据え置き (1.00-1.25%)

となりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、

労働市場動向は堅調で、

あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

  

また、バランスシート縮小を比較的近い時期に開始、ということも明記されました。

これは量的緩和で吸収した株式等の資産の放出&ドル回収となり、株安&ドル高材料となるはずです。

       

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 7月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2017年7月 6日

FOMC議事録 全文 7月

日本時間 2017/7/6(木)3:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

June 13-14, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, June 13, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 14, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
Charles L. Evans
Stanley Fischer
Patrick Harker
Robert S. Kaplan
Neel Kashkari
Jerome H. Powell

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 7月" »

2017年6月15日

FOMCまとめ 6月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 予想通りの利上げにマーケットの反応は?

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年6月15日(木)03:00 発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 
June 14, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent.(市場予想通りの0.25%利上げ) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.(反対1名、金利据え置きを主張)

   

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170614a.htm

   

 

3:30頃から イエレン会見  

 

「適切な時期になれば保有資産の正常化に着手。」(株安、ドル高材料)
コアインフレは小幅に低下した。」
引続き緩やかな利上げが正当化される。」
「経済は我々の目標に向かって進展。」
引続き緩やかな成長を見込む。」
バランスシート縮小を年内に開始する。」
「資産縮小の上限設定は金利変動を抑制へ。」
資産縮小の終了は恐らく数年先に。」
「数回のインフレ指標に過剰反応しないことが重要」
きょうのCPI、多くの分野で弱さ示した。」
雇用は強い。」
経済は回復を示している。」
賃金の伸びが依然として低い。」
インフレが上向いた証拠はない。」
保有資産の縮小は比較的早期の実行あり得る。」

 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおりの0.25%利上げ(0.75-1.00% → 1.00-1.25%)

となりました。

利上げ自体は市場予想どおりでサプライズはありません。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、

労働市場動向は堅調で、

あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

    

その後のイエレン会見でも、

基本姿勢は利上げ目線であることが明確で、

さらに、今までの量的緩和で吸収した資産を今度は市場に還流することを発表しました。(米ドルを回収、マネタリーベースの縮小)

これは教科書的には株安材料&ドル高材料となります。

  

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ち(圧勝)の様相です。

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安(利上げは株には悪材料)

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 6月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 予想通りの利上げにマーケットの反応は?" »

2017年5月25日

FOMC議事録 全文 5月

日本時間 2017/5/25(木)3:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

May 2-3, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, May 2, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, May 3, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
Charles L. Evans
Stanley Fischer
Patrick Harker
Robert S. Kaplan
Neel Kashkari
Jerome H. Powell

続きを読む "FOMC議事録 全文 5月" »

2017年5月 4日

FOMCまとめ 5月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年5月4日(木)03:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
May 03, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Share
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed. Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined. Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Excluding energy and food, consumer prices declined in March and inflation continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent(金利据え置き). The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.(反対無し)

   

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170503a.htm

   

 

イエレン会見は今回はナシ    

 

 

 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおりの金利据え置き

となりました。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

インフレ状況も、労働市場動向も堅調で、

あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

    

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株高

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 5月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2017年4月 6日

FOMC議事録全文 4月 5分足

日本時間 2017/4/6(木)3:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

March 14-15, 2017

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, March 14, 2017, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, March 15, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1

PRESENT:

Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
Charles L. Evans
Stanley Fischer
Patrick Harker
Robert S. Kaplan
Neel Kashkari
Jerome H. Powell
Daniel K. Tarullo

Marie Gooding, Jeffrey M. Lacker, Loretta J. Mester, and John C. Williams, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee

James Bullard, Esther L. George, and Eric Rosengren, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Kansas City, and Boston, respectively

Brian F. Madigan, Secretary
Matthew M. Luecke, Deputy Secretary
David W. Skidmore, Assistant Secretary
Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary
Scott G. Alvarez, General Counsel
Michael Held,2 Deputy General Counsel
Steven B. Kamin, Economist
Thomas Laubach, Economist
David W. Wilcox, Economist

James A. Clouse, Michael Dotsey, Evan F. Koenig, Daniel G. Sullivan, and William Wascher, Associate Economists

Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account

Lorie K. Logan, Deputy Manager, System Open Market Account

Robert deV. Frierson, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors

Matthew J. Eichner,3 Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of Governors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Director, Division of Financial Stability, Board of Governors

Daniel M. Covitz, Deputy Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors; Michael T. Kiley, Deputy Director, Division of Financial Stability, Board of Governors; Stephen A. Meyer, Deputy Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors

続きを読む "FOMC議事録全文 4月 5分足" »

2017年3月16日

FOMCまとめ 3月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 予想どおりの利上げ実施にマーケットの反応は?

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年3月16日(木)03:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: March 15, 2017

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent.(0.75~1%への利上げ) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.(金利据え置きを主張)

   

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--March 15, 2017
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170315a.htm

   

FOMCメンバーによる金利見通し(ドットチャート)
2017年
0.875% 2人
1.000% 0人
1.125% 1人
1.375% 9人
1.500% 0人
1.625% 4人
1.750% 0人
1.875% 0人
2.000% 0人
2.125% 1人

 


3:00からイエレン会見    

 

「利上げは経済の進展が継続していることを反映。」
「利上げは経済の再評価は反映していない。」
雇用改善が底堅く継続している。」
緩やかな成長ぺースが持続と見込む。」
「コアインフレはこの数ヵ月若干変化した。」
金融政策は利上げ後も緩和的であり続ける。」
「経済見通しは12月からごく僅かに変化。」
現段階の中立金利は非常に低い。」
「金融政策は事前に決めているわけではない。」
「再投資の方針がいずれ変更することについて協議した。」
「バランスシートの縮小過程は緩やかで予測可能に。」
「(今回を含めて)年内3回の利上げは緩やかなペースだと確実に言える。」
インフレと雇用の目標は達成に近づいている。」
「国境税がドルに及ぼす影響は非常に不透明。」

 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおりの0.25%利上げ、となりました。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

インフレ状況も、労働市場動向も堅調で、

あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

    

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株高

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 3月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 予想どおりの利上げ実施にマーケットの反応は?" »

2017年2月23日

FOMC議事録全文 2月

日本時間 2017/2/23(木)4:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

January 31-February 1, 2017

FOMC Minutes

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 31, 2017, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, February 1, 2017, at 9:00 a.m.1
PRESENT:

続きを読む "FOMC議事録全文 2月" »

2017年2月 2日

FOMCまとめ 2月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧

FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年2月2日(木)04:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: February 1, 2017

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 percent. (0.5~0.75%に金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.(全会一致)

   

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--February 1, 2017
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170201a.htm


 

 

 

     

イエレン会見 今回はナシ

 


 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおり、金利据え置き、となりました。

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

インフレの低調さを挙げつつも、

労働市場の強さを再確認。

あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

    

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

結局米国しかまともなとこないじゃん、となって

・株高

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、特にドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 2月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧" »

2017年1月 5日

FOMC議事録全文 1月 5分足値動きまとめ

日本時間 2017/1/5(木)4:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

December 13-14, 2016

FOMC MinutesSummary of Economic Projections
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 13, 2016, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 14, 2016, at 9:00 a.m.1
PRESENT:

続きを読む "FOMC議事録全文 1月 5分足値動きまとめ" »

2016年12月15日

FOMCまとめ 12月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 0.25%の利上げにマーケットの反応は?

FOMC声明 日本時間 2016年12月15日(木)04:00発表

前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: December 14, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.(反対者無し)

   

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 14, 2016
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20161214a.htm


 

 

     

4:30ごろから イエレン会見

 

経済が著しく進展したと認識。」
インフレ率は2%に近づいた。」
雇用の状況は更に幾分改善すると予想。」
「2%のインフレ目標のコミットは変わらず。」
インフレ期待は抑制されている。」
「9月と12月の見通しは類似。」
経済の先行きはかなり不透明。」
緩やかな利上げのみ正当化すると想定。」
「ドットプロットは小幅な調整。」
財政政策の変化は見通しを変える可能性。」
「一部のメンバーは財政政策の変化を考慮に入れた。」
税制の変化が生産性と投資を高める可能性。」
「財政政策変更の予想が金利見通しに影響した可能性。」
「財政拡大は完全雇用には明らかに必要とされていない。 」

 

    

   

FOMC声明については、

市場予想どおり0.25%の利上げとなりました。(サプライズは無い)

過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

   

内容については、

さらなる追加利上げをやる気マンマンという感じで、       

依然として前向きイケイケのようです。  

   

その後のイエレン会見でも、

さらなる追加利上げをやる気マンマンという感じで、

先行きの不透明さはあるものの、

基本的な姿勢としては利上げ目線のようです。

    

グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、

相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です

   

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株高

・ドル高(金利上昇期待)

と考えるのが自然です。

   

少なくとも、特にドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

   

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?

続きを読む "FOMCまとめ 12月 声明全文と各国政策金利一覧 0.25%の利上げにマーケットの反応は?" »

2016年11月24日

FOMC議事録全文 11月 5分足値動きまとめ

日本時間 2016/11/24(木)4:00発表

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

November 1-2, 2016

FOMC Minutes
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, November 1, 2016, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, November 2, 2016, at 9:00 a.m.1
PRESENT:
Janet L. Yellen, Chair
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard
James Bullard
Stanley Fischer
Esther L. George
Loretta J. Mester
Jerome H. Powell
Eric Rosengren
Daniel K. Tarullo

続きを読む "FOMC議事録全文 11月 5分足値動きまとめ" »

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